Jeffrey Shrader

The blog post “Thoughts On Public Weather Forecasting” has been updated!

Temperature exhibits high temporal autocorrelation. Regressing daily, county average temperature in the continental U.S. on its own first lag yields a coefficient of 0.95, a t-stat of 730 (standard errors clustered at the National Weather Service County Warning Area level) and an R^2 of 0.9. Regressing temperature on its own first 7 lags yields the following coefficients. (...more)

What is the economic justification for government production of weather forecasts? The question has gained particular relevance during the first and second Trump administrations, and this is my place to collect and clarify economic reasoning related to the question, focusing on "classic" economic rationales for public policy. (...more)

No better time than 2025 to create your own blog, as they say. I have a few posts lined up on topics of recent or enduring interest including thoughts on public versus private weather forecasting, the practice and philosophy of science, a planned recurring series on facts that surprise me, and a meta post about the creation of blog tools using AI assistance. Stay tuned! (...more)

New working paper! Age and occupation are both risk factors for heat-related mortality, and the two combine to especially affect young, agricultural workers.

New publication! “Heat Disproportionately Kills Young People: Evidence From Wet-Bulb Temperature in Mexico” has been published in Science Advances. Press coverage of the paper can be found in the AP, the Guardian, NPR, the New York Times, and many other sources.